Doing lip service has never solved any problem . No wonder 2009 G20 meet held in London is ineffective on the same count . While Mr brown looked confident in his dealing Mr Obama appeared very unsure .

No i am not to pass a judgment on economic acumen of these leader . I simply don’t have that much of immunity . But the declaration @ the end of G20 meet is something to be analyzed in detail . For it contains the actions that were not done in order to solve the current crisis .

The G20 solution for world economy looked like this .
1> Increase of few hundred billion dollars in IMFs kitty as SDR .
2> Establishing greater transparency in tax heavens , name and shame them .
3> Global coordinated stimulus .

Wel that’s the crux of it in layman’s language . This is supposed to solve the current crisis .
But what crisis are we facing in reality ?

Is it sub prime ? wel yes and now . In reality sub prime loan isn’t what this recession is all about .Sub prime is first of the symptoms of the things that went wrong .
The real crisis that we are staring at is that of unregulated derivatives and complete lack of maturity .

You would have heard the word over leverage and toxic asset many time in recent past .Simply put toxic asset is one which has no value or chances of recovery of the loan in foreseeable future .Loans were simply given to people at weak criteria . Loan that were given at low rates on the name of socialistic themes like house for all . That was the first fundamental mistake .The real mistake was to make pieces of such loan and sell derivatives of them to other bank . And the next layer of mistake came from the institutions that insured the loan .

Look the mess now . Its like same mistake multiplied 3 times . Taking such a repeat and excessive positions on small money can be simplified and called as over leverage . That is what the CDO and CDS all about . By some estimates this amounts to from 16 trillion to 600 trillion .
The number by both counts is horrifying .

But more horrifying is the fact that its the same money circulated many times . That makes the problem complicated to solve financially .

While the crisis began like this there is complete denial in the leadership of this issue . Bail out after bail outs are give to banks to clean up the loans . Where as in reality such loan cant be cleaned up in such a straight fwd way . This said we head for the next crisis which is of confidence . Since all of the lender knows the other one is tied in loan none is leading money to each other and the bail outs end up only in balance sheets . The real economy is still suffering .

let me ask U one simple question : What happens to a person who has drunk too much wine .The answer is simple either he digests it which is a long and painful process . Or he vomits it all which is a shocking and painful process . Wel there is one more option which is giving him medicines that partly make him digest the wine and partly throw it out of his body .

This third solution might hold the key to present problem but that’s a very rational decision . Rational and bold [ and mostly un popular ] decision takes visionary leadership to execute it .

So in realistic term our economy patient has 2 choices . Eat it or vomit it .In financial terms vomit ting will map to series of mergers , restructuring and bankruptcies .

Where as digesting the toxin means that the world settles all these loans in hard money . Of course prevailing wisdom in today’s world doesn’t suggest that we are going to save and earn so much money just to clear the mess we created . The mindsets aren’t so patient and mature .
So whats gonna happen in reality is that Governments , in particular US keeps on printing money at regular intervals so that the debt is cleared . Call this as quantitative easing . Another variation of this can be that of devaluing the currency so that overnight the money doubles and the debt figures looks too small and easy to manage .

Both case are result of smart and dishonest policy and both result in playing with the very definition of money and value . Just enough to clear the debt .

The G20 was the summit who was to solve this issue . SDRs which are essentially another name of bundle of few currencies like USD and EURO and all doesn’t server the purpose .Arresting tax heavens cant solve the problem though it might arrest it in future 🙂 [ assuming ppl are dumb to use same tactic again for deception ..lol ] .

What does that mean to ppl like us , actually noting . The G20 just created a feel good and postponed the day of reckoning . Remember the huge losses , debts and lack of money flow is still missing . In effect the issue is unaddressed .

I wonder if US and allies can convince G20 + for simultaneous quantitative easing . I wonder if non USD countries will gather the gutz to ask for new currencies .
Till such a thing happens we will keep on revisiting the same toxic assets which are now renamed as legacy assets , again and again , with increasing frequency .

The lay off are hitting India now , soon the salary cuts will follow .
Ignore the rise in stock markets in April . Ignore the profit that citi can report . Ignore the dip in gold prices [ it will shine in time of crisis] . The problem is still there , large and worsening .

Caution : More pain ahead …..

The jagore campaign was all around me . Some thousand people from my company registered for voters list . The feeling was overwhelming and I had to really wait for long time to get rid of that influence .

While jagore and allied campaigns might be limited in their reach , considering the size that India is of , it marks beginning of a new trend in this country .

For this was first successful campaign centered around citizenship . It will be interesting to see how much this affects the elite and translate into votes .

And if that happens this small % of new voters might change the result. I stick to might as a verb here especially considering the fact that most of our constituencies are rural 🙂 .

What amazes me about 2 diff things that are happening this time .
The first one is the sleek advertisements that BJP and Congress has put in place .

Full marks should be given to the ad agency that designed congress TV ads . They are top notch .
The usage of “jai ho” song might go down as a brilliant choice . But can such gimmicks change poll results ? … Now i don’t confuse myself with political analyst 🙂 but slogans and catch lines have their strong place in any campaigning . And this time they are too good . This time they are very filmy .

The second fact is how certain people are about the poll outcome . Almost everyone is sure of we getting a hung Parliament . The certainty is amazing . Somehow its so over the top that I feel the poll outcome might shock everyone . Or I hope so 🙂 that we get stable govt.

We never know , say some news on economics or Pakistan front might come in middle of election and change the outcome . But that’s wishful , I admit and I stop 🙂 .

Equally amazing is how people have written congress off . Looks like all TV pundits are more sure of congress’s poor show than a hung parliament . May be they are right , may be manmohans and sonia’s magic wont work ,
i take no side . Its just that I love underdog stories .
They are so so dramatic that it almost feels like democracy ….. !

Happy Intellectual is an interesting concept .Some how i find this as oxymoron .

Lets say for the sake of simplicity that an intellectual is a person who thinks . He [ gender neutral ] is someone who always thinks . He thinks about everything that happens around him .He tries to reason everything that goes around him and every thing that goes on but not around him 🙂 .
This is the guy who relies more on reason and logic than customs and rituals . Such a reliance often lead this person to question things . Such questions then begets agreements and disagreements over things .And then on an intellectual person starts taking stand . Stand for things he thinks and believes in . This is kind of a raw energy that has potential to shape things . Call it power of thought if we wish .Consider this a brain power 🙂
Cut to real life an intellect is either a rebel or he is into his own shell . But the power remains .

Lets move to over next type . A Happy person . He is someone ,everyone likes to be .Here is happy person who cheerful about life and things that go on . He is optimistic about tings that go around him and accommodates whatever happens with a smile .
I wonder where does such an sanguine outlook of the world come from . Is that a happy person is more acceptable towards thing .Must be .One cant be at peace with things he cant accept .
At cognitive level ,scientist say , being happy is being wel adjusted .So may be our Happy person dint accept things as they are but he compromised. Its like acceptance of convenience .And its also about ignoring the inconvenient .
Life as harsh and unfair it can be is a rough thing to deal with and digest .And i find such a compromise for the sake of feel good as quite practical .Its just the acceptance of human limitation and weakness . But once , the books say , we accept things as they are life become easier . It becomes easy . Such ease makes one optimistic about future . And this spreads cheer in ones dealing . This makes our Happy person .

We come across both these types . Somehow the intellectual person isnt that happy . And the happy person isnt that questioning . We find both of the normal .

I dont have any final verdict on what the right thing . But at fundamental level i disagree with both these types . Somewhere i find them extremes .Extremes in their belief that everything should be logical or nothing should be . Extreme in their practice or determination and immediate acceptance .
Somewhere at deeper level both make evident tow of the very strong tendency of human nature . While the intellectual signifies spirit of human mind and its might the happy person exemplifies our insatiable need of assurance .Without again taking a side i feel both of these are going for one sided and over simplified world view .
Its like one person choosing to always fight and one … never .

We as human race might still spend ages trying to figure out exactly how powerful human mind is . We as human race might go on getting philosophical and expound the virtues of acceptance .

Enter our Happy intellectual . This is an interesting category . Its of the people who understand that life is struggle to being with but the end can be a compromise . or may be the other way round . Point is its the Happy intellectuals non pursuel of a static view of world that makes it exciting . This is the person who is always cool with ever changing reality and still ready to negotiate his way out . He embodies the best of our fighter spirit and our sentimental flexibility .
He for once is the person who can switch between material and spiritual realms of our existence with ease .
To me thing signals an immense power . Its the flaring human mind that’s under control . Its the gushing human emotions that are under supervision . Its an enterprising human mind that values people .Its the realization that world need to be improved but not altered to suit ones convenience . Its the determination life needs to be enjoyed and be fought for .
Its of the people who has power to change things and the maturity to know what needs to changed why and how and most importantly how much .

Ben was one such person , i met in flight when i was drunk . One of such a person i know .and the reason why he matter is he is intellectual and he is happy .

As a teen i used to have big complaints on my friends forgetting to wish me birthday .Its was a simple funda for me then . Anyone one who wishes me on the day was my real friend .Nopes i dint confuse between great friends and routine ones . But someone who cares to remember my birthday was really my friend . Later when i grew up the fundae also changed . But i cant still laugh at my criteria of really friends . It was a rather simple and practical consideration .Some how the act of doing something so basic as saying Happy Bday assured the sanctity of the relation . I still go with the funda .doing things matter [ not so abt the converse though ].

Mumbai Attack on Taj and Trident were no small event for India .Much has been writeen about them and as the time passes its becoming more evident that this incident is going to shape India big time .More especially its considerations on nationalism .

I wish to draw attention to the other aspect where its going to make bigg difference , Indian democracy . As as institution its maturing .The way Mumabi blast prosecution is being handled makes the same thing evident .
Patriotism apart the basic things that happeing in and around Ajmal Kasabs trial is the case in point. Consider this Here is a nation infamous for Godhra and the mumbai attack . Here is the terrorist accused cought for Mumabi attck , looking all healthy . There was no news of any kinda of religious abuse towards this guy . He is presented in court and given a fair trial .

If you are not Indian or don’t believe much in Indian judicial system I wont argue with you .
But the fact that Ajmal Kasab has been given a govt laywer . The fact that Ms Anjali Waghmare is determined to fight his case . The fact that there is going to be detailed court trial does establish the sanctity of Indian democracy . No big claims that this is something so great about India .Rather its a sigh of content that the system is sane and working .

U know what the daughter of Hemant Karkare , the cop who died in mumbai attack said about kasab ” Release him , he is rather young can be/is mislead ” .May that’s something unique to this soil .. may be ..