By the time 2025 is closing and the question is whether Coding LLMs/Agents/IDEs replace human programmers? gets asked,i am at ” It might actually” moment.
Few quarters before i was at “maybe let’s see”.
Thats the amount of progress state of the art has made.
Based on the report you read and the date of it ,some 40 percent of code and 256 billion lines of code have been outputted by models. Forget about the impact but such numbers mean it is a large scale training and human verification that has already gone back into the models/to the labs.
With more focused optimizations from the AI LABs in the model architecture and deployments 2026, especially by plugging in some knowledge representation and knowledge priority/rankin,g might close the year 2026 on “Ah it happened”.
ps: There have been many shots taken at eliminating the programmer over the last 4 decades (really, it’s that old of a dream ).
These attempts tried visuals, formatted config, drag and drop and even document based approaches. Additionally, the design based approaches like annotation and injection, also kept on happening.
But the “so called” ability to reason offered by LLMs is breaking past the totality barrier of code generation from specs. My best bet is that models becoming runtime aware is what will be the last finishing touch to the masterpiece.